By Ellie MacPhee

From Gaga’s domination to Kendrick’s return, here’s how this year’s biggest night in music could play out.

The 2026 Grammy Awards are quickly approaching, and the music industry is divided over this year's nominees. With heavyweights such as Lady Gaga, Kendrick Lamar and Sabrina Carpenter in the mix predicting winners means balancing artistry, trends and industry politics. Here’s who’s expected to win, who could take the crown and which outsiders might make a breakthrough.

The Album of the Year race is shaping up to be one of the most spirited in recent years, with nominees that span genre, language and cultural reach. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX is a socially conscious, boundary-pushing rap project and a critical favourite. However, Lady Gaga is the likely front-runner, as her high-concept, theatrical production MAYHEM is a perfect fit for the Grammy format. Still, keep an eye on Sabrina Carpenter and her album Man’s Best Friend. Her transition from pop ingénue to cultural icon has been one of the most captivating stories in music this year, positioning her as a legitimate dark horse in this stacked category.

Sabrina Carpenter accepting MTV’s Album of The Year award for her ‘Short N’ Sweet’ album

Record of the Year feels like a generational showdown. Gaga’s Abracadabra and Lamar and SZA’s Luther face off against rising stars Billie Eilish’s Wildflower and Chappell Roan’s The Subway. Luther stands out as a soul-drenched politically resonant track, yet Abracadabra’s sweeping production and emotional intensity make it the likely winner. Roan’s The Subway, fuelled by her viral rise and distinctive sound, might defy expectations.

Song of the Year highlights the power of lyrics to define cultural moments. Eilish’s Wildflower is a critical favourite for its minimalist, yet emotionally precise songwriting. Gaga’s Abracadabra caters to Grammy voters who favour sweeping, emotionally powerful anthems, whereas Doechii’s Anxiety delivers unfiltered vulnerability, bringing an unexpected edge to the category.

Billie Eilish posing with Grammys she won back in 2020, one of them including Song of The Year

The Best New Artist category had been unpredictable, showcasing rising talents across all genres. Olivia Dean is the must win for her nuanced lyricism and sophisticated vocals. However, Addison Rae’s media visibility makes her the likely favourite. The Marías, quietly honing their dreamy R&B-psychedelic sound since 2016, could also surprise voters, earning recognition for their steady rise and behind-the-scenes credibility.

Best Pop Vocal Album highlights the diversity of contemporary pop. Miley Cyrus’ Something Beautiful is critically acclaimed for its vocal maturity, yet Gaga’s MAYHEM seems orchestrated for Grammy success. Whereas Sabrina Carpenter’s Man’s Best Friend could emerge as the dark horse, her confident evolution and viral success making her a contender.

Lady Gaga winning the 2011s Grammy for Best Pop Vocal Album

From Gaga’s domination to Kendrick’s lyrical brilliance, this year’s Grammys feel like a clash between spectacle and craft. The Recording Academy’s choices often favour prestige and polish — but if you listen closely, the most deserving winners might not be the loudest ones.

The Grammys 2026: Who Deserves It and Who Will Actually Take It Home